Featured Speaker: Steven C. Amstrup, PhD, Senior Scientist, Polar Bears International

In 2007, Steven Amstrup’s research team at the US Geological Survey projected that by mid-century we would lose two-third’s of the world’s polar bears and that there was reasonable chance they would be extinct by the end of the century if we continued to follow greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions business as usual. More recently, Steven and his colleagues have shown that preventing polar bear extinction is largely a matter of controlling greenhouse gas rise.

Given the natural chaos in the climate system, many have questioned how we could reliably predict what populations might be like in 50 or 100 years. After all, we cannot even predict next week’s weather! The answer to this apparent paradox lies in the concept of threshold exceedence. The persistent climate forcing that results from growing atmospheric GHG concentrations requires a directional response in earth’s climate-that is, the earth must warm. Polar bears depend on sea ice for catching their marine mammal prey. A warmer world will hold less sea ice habitat. Natural variations in weather and climate mean we cannot predict the first summer the Arctic will be ice-free or the first year the mean Cleveland temperature will be 2 degrees higher than it is now, but without GHG mitigation, crossing both thresholds is assured. The farther into the future we look the greater the likelihood these and other critical thresholds will have been crossed.

The most trustworthy climate models are consistent in predicting summer sea ice disappearing between the middle and the end of the century. Even if those models are wrong, the sea ice eventually will disappear without mitigating GHG rise. Warming will constrict polar bears into ever smaller and more vulnerable areas. Seasonal and annual fluctuation in the weather and climate mean that in the short term, some years will be bad for polar bears and some will be better. In the long run, without GHG mitigation, all years will be bad for polar bears and they ultimately will disappear. The good news is that it is not too late to prevent this from occurring. Prompt mitigation will prevent much sea ice loss and preserve sustainable polar bear populations over a majority of their current range. Join Polar Bears International senior scientist, Steven Amstrup for the good news on why it’s not too late to prevent the demise of the polar bear.

Location: Saint Louis Zoo Living World Auditorium. Parking is FREE in the Zoo North Lot.

FREE and OPEN to ALL. Adults, teachers, middle and high school students, and the general public are invited to attend these no-cost lectures on topical issues in science. For more information call 314-646-4544 or 314-533-8586. Registration not required.

Conservation Conversations is Co-sponsored by:

Featured Speaker: Rebecca Klein, Managing Director and Founder, Cheetah Conservation Botswana

The cheetah is Africa’s most endangered large cat, with only an estimated 10,000 - 12,000 remaining in the wild. Botswana contains one of the largest cheetah populations in Africa today, yet not without challenges-- the species is threatened due to loss of habitat, declining prey populations, increasing conflict with farming communities, and illegal trade. Cheetah Conservation Botswana was established in 2003, to promote the conservation of the cheetah and other threatened carnivores, through scientific research, community outreach and education. The project investigates and promotes best practices in livestock, range management and non-lethal control methods to reduce human carnivore conflict and conserve habitat, and raises awareness for carnivore conservation and more sustainable futures for Kalahari communities. Rebecca Klein talks about meeting the challenges for Kalahari conservation and ensuring a future for cheetahs and the rich biodiversity of carnivores in the region.

Location: Saint Louis Zoo Living World Auditorium. Parking is FREE in the Zoo North Lot.

FREE and OPEN to ALL. Adults, teachers, middle and high school students, and the general public are invited to attend these no-cost lectures on topical issues in science. For more information call 314-646-4544 or 314-533-8586. Registration not required.

Conservation Conversations is Co-sponsored by:

Featured Speaker: Cheryl Asa, Ph.D., Fellow and 2009 Outstanding St. Louis Scientist Fellows Award Recipient, Academy of Science – St. Louis; Director of Research, Saint Louis Zoo, Reproductive Physiologist; Advisor on canid reproduction to the IUCN/Species Survival Commission Canid Specialist Group, U.S. Fish & Wildlife SErvice, and AZA Canid Taxon Advisory Group

Recovery of the critically endangered island fox, native to the islands off southern California, depended on captive breeding and required restoring the ecosystem. After fox populations on several of the Channel Islands crashed in the late 1990’s, research determined that human-generated changes to the ecosystem, such as chemical spills off Los Angeles and ranchers allowing pigs to become feral, had created an unprecedented nesting opportunity for golden eagles which resulted in their predation of foxes. Surviving foxes, captured for safekeeping, formed the basis of a captive breeding program that was central to their recovery. Dr. Asa and the Saint Louis Zoo’s research department used video and hormone analyses to monitor fox behavior and reproductive activity for 10 years. Restoration of safe habitat for foxes included reintroducing bald eagles and removing golden eagles. In an all-too-rare example of successful endangered species recovery, captive-born foxes have been released onto the islands and have adapted well to life in the wild. Using fecal samples collected in the field, Dr. Asa’s lab continues to monitor wellbeing of the released foxes.

Location: Saint Louis Zoo Living World Auditorium. Parking is FREE in the Zoo North Lot.

FREE and OPEN to ALL. Adults, teachers, middle and high school students, and the general public are invited to attend these no-cost lectures on topical issues in science. For more information call 314-646-4544 or 314-533-8586. Registration not required.

Conservation Conversations is Co-sponsored by: